VIC Childcare Supply & Demand — 2024

Market Snapshot | 2023–2024

Victoria’s childcare market continued to expand during 2023–2024, with growth in both the underlying child population and childcare capacity. However, supply increased at a substantially faster rate than demand.

As at 2024, Victoria had approximately 1,893 Centre-Based Day Care (CBDC) centres, providing around 172,000 places for an estimated 387,000 children aged 0–4.

VIC at a Glance

Capacity is expanding much faster than demand

Victoria’s population aged 0–4 increased modestly by 0.4% during 2023–2024. Over the same period, the number of CBDC centres increased by 4.9%, while approved places grew by a much stronger 9.2%.

This lifted the statewide supply ratio from approximately 40.8 places per 100 children in 2023 to 44.4 in 2024, representing an 8.8% year-on-year increase.

Unlike markets where improving childcare provision has coincided with a declining child population, Victoria continues to record positive demographic growth. However, the pace of new childcare capacity is substantially greater than the growth in the population it serves.

Statewide growth masks very different local market conditions

Victoria’s statewide figures provide only part of the picture. Population growth, new centre development and additions to approved capacity vary significantly between individual markets.

Some areas are experiencing strong growth in both children and childcare supply, while in others capacity is expanding considerably faster than the underlying population. There are also markets where changes in available places differ markedly from changes in centre numbers.

For developers, operators and investors, this makes local supply growth, demographic momentum and existing provision levels increasingly important. The statewide average of 44.4 places per 100 children can conceal very different competitive conditions across individual Victorian catchments.